Shell forecasts 65% surge in global LNG demand by 2050, but disruptions stall 2026 growth
The tl;dr
Shell projects global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand will jump 65% from 2025 to 2050, driven by rising consumption in Asia. But the forecast is tempered by near-term headwinds: a Middle East conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and blocked about a fifth of current global LNG supply, pushing up spot prices and stalling expected 2026 growth.
Key points
- Shell, the world's largest LNG trader, expects global LNG demand to grow 65% between 2025 and 2050, with South and Southeast Asia driving much of the increase due to rising energy needs.
- Global LNG trade reached 422 million tons in the previous year, and industry players expected 2026 to show strong growth—but that forecast is now at risk.
- Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for Middle East energy exports—have temporarily shut down roughly a fifth of the world's monthly LNG supply, raising spot market prices.
- The near-term disruption creates a gap between long-term bullish demand expectations and current supply constraints, putting pressure on energy prices in the short run.
Shell, the world’s dominant liquefied natural gas trader, published its annual outlook for 2026 and beyond, painting a picture of strong long-term growth tempered by immediate supply challenges. The oil and gas major forecasts that global LNG demand will grow by 65% from 2025 levels by the middle of the century, reflecting accelerating energy consumption across South and Southeast Asia as those regions industrialize and expand their economies.
The forecast reflects genuine structural demand: LNG is a key import for countries without domestic gas reserves, and Asia’s rapid development requires vast amounts of energy. Global LNG trade hit 422 million tons last year, and traders had expected 2026 to mark a rebound year with solid growth. However, geopolitical turbulence has interrupted that outlook. A conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which much of the world’s energy exports flow. This blockage has removed approximately one-fifth of global monthly LNG supply from the market, tightening supply and pushing up spot prices for LNG.
The divergence between Shell’s bullish half-century forecast and its cautious near-term view reflects a common dynamic in commodity markets: long-term structural trends—such as Asia’s energy hunger—can coexist with near-term supply shocks and geopolitical friction. Buyers and traders are caught between expecting stronger demand ahead and navigating current scarcity and price volatility.
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